Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: WaMu Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates Series 2003-AR9 Trust
Cl. I-B-2, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. I-B-3, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. II-A, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to A2 (sf)
Cl. II-B-1, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. II-B-2, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Issuer: WaMu Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2003-AR4
Cl. B-1, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. B-2, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Apr 20, 2011 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The actions are a result of the recent performance of the pools and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools. The downgrades are a result of deteriorating performance of the pools and structural features resulting in higher expected losses for the bonds than previously anticipated.
The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "Pre-2005 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published in January 2012. The methodology used in rating Interest-Only Securities was "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for 1) Moody's current view on loan modifications and 2) small pool volatility.
Loan Modifications
As a result of an extension of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 2013 and an increased use of private modifications, Moody's is extending its previous view that loan modifications will only occur through the end of 2012. It is now assuming that the loan modifications will continue at current levels until the end of 2013.
Small Pool Volatility
To project losses on pools with fewer than 100 loans, Moody's first estimates a "baseline" average rate of new delinquencies for the pool that is set at 3% for Jumbo and which is typically higher than the average rate of new delinquencies for larger pools. Once the baseline rate is set, further adjustments are made based on 1) the number of loans remaining in the pool and 2) the level of current delinquencies in the pool. The fewer the number of loans remaining in the pool, the higher the volatility in performance. Once the loan count in a pool falls below 76, the rate of delinquency is increased by 1% for every loan less than 76. For example, for a pool with 75 loans, the adjusted rate of new delinquency would be 3.03%. In addition, if current delinquency levels in a small pool is low, future delinquencies are expected to reflect this trend. To account for that, the rate calculated above is multiplied by a factor ranging from 0.75 to 2.5 for current delinquencies ranging from less than 2.5% to greater than 10% respectively. Delinquencies for subsequent years and ultimate expected losses are projected using the approach described in the methodology publication listed above.
The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the uncertainty in our central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility due to servicer-related issues. The unemployment rate fell from 9.0% in April 2011 to 7.8% in September 2012. Moody's forecasts a further drop to 7.5% by 2014. Moody's expects house prices to drop another 1% from their 4Q2011 levels before gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these transactions.
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers may be found at:
Excel: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF308750
A list of updated estimated pool losses, sensitivity analysis, and tranche recovery details is being posted on an ongoing basis for the duration of this review period and may be found at:
Excel: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF243269
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in these transactions and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Jonathan Corwin Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Deepika Kothari Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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