ALSTOM SA: Alstom Note – Q1 2024/25 Preview

Alstom Note – Q1 2024/25 Preview

5 July 2024 – Alstom presents below a preview to its Q1 2024/25 orders and sales results.

Q1 2024/25 Orders

The table below summarizes the large orders (more than €200 million) published and booked during the quarter.

• Deals announced previously, but to be booked at a later stage

• Haifa-Nazareth Systems contract for ~€700 million, expected booking in FY 2025/26: link to the press release
• CP (Portugal) for ~€700 million, awarded to Alstom. Expecting end of competitors’ challenge. Expected booking in FY 2024/25.
• Toronto electrification for several € billions. Preliminary design works on-going (joint development phase). Bookings are expected in several batches from calendar year 2025 to 2028.

• Focus on base orders
  
  

In addition to large orders disclosed in the above table, we remind the guidance for base orders (less than €200 million) which typically account for €1.5 billion to €2.0 billion per quarter since the merger with Bombardier.

The table below reminds the breakdown between large and base orders during Q1 for the last three fiscal years:

• Reminder - FY 2024/25 guidance on orders
  
  

At FY 2023/24 release on 8 May 2024:

• Book-to-bill ratio above 1 for FY 2024/25 at Group level, with an expected higher order intake during second half of the year versus first half.
• Book-to-bill ratio for Rolling Stock to be around 1 for the three years FY 204/25 to FY 2026/27.

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Q1 2024/25 Sales

At FY 2023/24 release on 8 May 2024:

• We guided for an organic growth around 5% for FY 2024/25 at Group level
• We reminded of usual seasonality (Q1 2024/25 growth to be measured against last fiscal year Q1)

Breakdown of sales by currency is given in the appendix of the FY 2024/25 analysts presentation (page 42): link to the presentation .

We expect small positive forex impact on sales of ~0.2% for the first quarter of FY 2024/25.

We expect negative perimeter impact on Q1 2024/25 sales for ~ (0.4)% due to a change in control of two service JVs with RENFE in Spain, following changes in the JV agreements: these JVs will now be accounted for under the equity method and no more as joint operations.

Reminder of other elements of guidance for FY 2024/25

• aEBIT margin around 6.5 %
• FCF generation €300m to €500m
• Seasonality driving:
  • Negative FCF within a range of €(300)m to €(500)m in H1 2024/25
  • aEBIT margin development to be more H2 weighted
    
    

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What to expect from July 23 release (at 6pm CET)

• Reported Q1 orders and sales for FY 2024/25
• Update on deleveraging plan
• Guidance for FY 2024/25
  
  

This document contains forward-looking statements which are based on current plans and forecasts of Alstom’s management. Such forward-looking statements are relevant to the current scope of activity and are by their nature subject to a number of important risks and uncertainty factors (such as those described in the documents filed by Alstom with the French AMF) that could cause actual results to differ from the plans, objectives and expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. These such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and Alstom undertakes no obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This document does not constitute or form part of a prospectus or any offer or invitation for the sale or issue of, or any offer or inducement to purchase or subscribe for, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any shares or other securities in the Company in France, the United Kingdom, the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any offer of the Company’s securities may only be made in France pursuant to a prospectus having received the visa from the AMF or, outside France, pursuant to an offering document prepared for such purpose. The information does not constitute any form of commitment on the part of the Company or any other person. Neither the information nor any other written or oral information made available to any recipient or its advisers will form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. In particular, in furnishing the information, the Company, its affiliates, shareholders, and their respective directors, officers, advisers, employees or representatives undertake no obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information.

Attachment

• Q1 2024-25 - Alstom Preview Note - Final