/nwsys/www/images/PBC_1058912 SUB-SOVEREIGN DATA REPORT 30 March 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Macro Economy 2 Fiscal Position 4 Real Estate Market 6 Onshore Bond Market 7 Appendices 11 Moody's Related Research 15 Contacts David Rubinoff 44-20-7772-1398 MD-Sub Sovereigns david.rubinoff@moodys.com Amanda Du 86-21-2057-4016 VP-Senior Analyst amanda.du@moodys.com Daisy Y Lu 86-21-2057-4026 Associate Analyst daisy.lu@moodys.com Regional and Local Governments - China Debt and Finances Snapshot The economic and fiscal position of regional and local governments (RLGs) in China (Aa3 negative) moderated in 2016, according to key statistics. We expect this trend to continue in 2017, mainly because (1) the central government trimmed its economic growth target to around 6.5% for this year, lower than last year's outcome of 6.7% and (2) the government maintains a proactive fiscal stance, including through tax relief and fee reductions, which will pressure RLGs' fiscal status. Even so, the RLGs' economic and fiscal performance vary widely, with provinces heavily exposed to industries with overcapacity lagging behind. » Regional GDP growth moderated for most RLGs. The overall pace of economic growth continued to moderate for most RLGs in 2016. Debt and equity financing grew at a faster pace in half of the provinces. The pace of industrial production growth was on par with that of 2015 for most RLGs. Likewise, the growth of fixed-asset investment increased in eight provinces only. While growth supported by policy stimulus might seem to minimize risks in the short run, it is likely to leave unaddressed deep imbalances evident across regional economies, thereby increasing long-term adjustment costs. » Fiscal revenue growth will likely continue to slow. In 2016, the RLGs' tax and non- tax revenues increased by 4.2% compared with a year earlier. This growth rate was recorded at a three-year low. Land sales, another major source of revenue, increased by 15.1% in 2016. These revenues will be under pressure due to tighter control policies in the property market and the slowdown of economic growth. » Real estate markets continue to stabilize in many provinces. In 2016, 21 provinces reported increases in new residential and commercial real estate construction starts on an annual basis. Land price inflation strengthened in most large cities, especially with respect to land for residential property. While residential property prices in major cities have surged rapidly over the past six to 12 months because of strong investment demand, we believe the governments will strengthen their differentiated policies in the property sector to prevent prices overheating in first- and major second-tier cities while supporting end-user demand in lower-tier cities where inventory is still high. 1 » Debt swap program boosts RLG bond issuance. In 2016, Chinese RLGs issued RMB 6 trillion of bonds, 80% of which were for the debt swap program sponsored by the Ministry of Finance. Since the program started in 2015, RLGs have cumulatively swapped RMB 8 trillion in non-bond government debt into bonds. This situation leaves RMB 4.7 trillion of remaining debt to be swapped or paid down. While the central government's intention is to complete the program within this year, the practical challenges, such as negotiating with diverse non-bank creditors, could delay the eventual swap of remaining RLG debt into 2018 or beyond. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Macro Economy Exhibit 1 The pace of economic growth moderated for most RLGs in 2016. -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2016 GDP(RMB trillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Growth (2016) - right axis Year-on-Year Growth (2015) - right axis Source: Provincial statistical offices » Only 5 small provinces (Shanxi, Tibet, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Ningxia) reported faster year-on-year GDP growth. » Only province of Liaoning reported shrinking GDP in 2016. Exhibit 2 The pace of industrial production growth in 2016 was on par with that of 2015 for most of the RLGs. -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2016 GDP(RMB trillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Industrial Production Growth (2016) - right axis Year-on-Year Industrial Production Growth (2015) - right axis Source: Provincial statistical offices » Eight provinces saw industrial production growth accelerate in 2016, while all provinces recorded lower growth in 2015. » Only province of Liaoning reported a contraction of industrial production in 2016. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 3 Fixed-asset investment growth moderated for most RLGs in 2016. -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Fixed Asset Investment (2016, RMBtrillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Growth (2016) - right axis Year-on-Year Growth (2015) - right axis Source: Provincial statistical offices » Eight provinces recorded accelerated growth in 2016, while five provinces recorded increased growth in 2015. » Two provinces (Liaoning and Xinjiang) recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment in 2016. Exhibit 4 Half of the provinces reported faster growth in total debt and equity financing to non-financial corporates and residents in 2016. 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Amount (2016, RMB billion) - left axis As % of GDP(2016) - right axis As % of GDP(2015) - right axis Source: People's Bank of China » Expansion of debt and equity financing was greatest in large provincial economies such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Beijing. » The growth in debt and equity financing reflected central government efforts to expand the monetary base at a faster pace than nominal GDP growth. 3 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Fiscal Position Exhibit 5 Growth of RLGs' budgetary revenues continued to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2016; full year growth was a three-year low. 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Revenue (RMBbillion) Expenditure (RMBbillion) Year-on-Year Growth of Revenue (cumulative) - right axis Source: Ministry of Finance » A policy change that replaces business taxes with value-added taxes has affected RLGs' tax receipts since June 2016. » Central government transfers is the main source to cover RLGs' monthly deficits. Exhibit 6 Land sales revenues continued to increase at a steady pace in Q4, after declining in H1 2015. -40% -25% -10% 5% 20% 35% 50% 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Land Sales (RMBbillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Growth of Land Sales (cumulative) - right axis Source: Ministry of Finance » Land sales revenues reached RMB1.4 trillion in Q4 2016, and the full-year amount was up 15.1% from 2015. » The continued increase in land sales provided flexibilities for RLGs to deal with slower growth of budgetary revenues. 4 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 7 Local state-owned enterprise (SOE) profits accelerated growth in Q4 2016. -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Local SOEProfit (RMBbillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Growth of Profit (cumulative) - right axis Source: Ministry of Finance » SOE profits fell in early 2016 to their lowest level since 2014. » Full year growth reached three-year historical high at 16.9%. Exhibit 8 Local SOEs reported steady growth in net assets in 2016. 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Asset (RMBtrillion) - left axis Liability (RMBtrillion) - left axis Year-on-Year Growth of Net Asset - right axis Source: Ministry of Finance » In 2016, SOE net assets had grown by 11.7% from 2015, marginally lower than the growth rate of 12.9% in 2015. » The higher SOE net asset position strengthens the RLGs' capacity to support local SOEs in distress. 5 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Real Estate Market Exhibit 9 New residential and commercial real estate starts increased for 21 provinces in 2016. -66% -46% -26% -6% 14% 34% 54% Year-on-Year Growth of Real Estate New Starts (2016) Year-on-Year Growth of Real Estate Under Construction (2016) Year-on-Year Growth of Real Estate Completed (2016) Source: National Bureau of Statistics » In comparison, new residential and commercial real estate starts increased for only seven provinces in 2015. » Real estate under construction increased year-on-year in 2016 for 16 of the 21 provinces that reported increased new real estate starts. Exhibit 10 Land price increases in 105 largest cities continued to strengthen in Q4 2016. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Total Residential Use Commercial Use Industrial Use Source: Ministry of Land and Resources » The previous decline in land price inflation bottomed at the end of 2015. » Increase in land price was mostly driven by residential land. 6 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 11 Recovery in the price of newly developed residential properties was evident in all cities. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% First-tier cities Second-t ier cit ies Lower-tier cities Source: National Bureau of Statistics » Property price inflation moderated for first-tier cities in Q4 due to recent government policies to stabilize the market. » A broad recovery of property prices in second- and lower-tier cities continued in Q4 2016. Note: First-tier cities are: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Second-tier cities are: Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Nanchang, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanning, Haikou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi’an, Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Wuxi, and Sanya. Lower-tier cities are any of the 70 major cities included in the statistics other than the first- and second-tier cities mentioned above. Onshore Bond Market Exhibit 12 RLG bond issuance dropped to RMB962 billion in Q4 2016 partly due to seasonality. 0 250 500 750 1,000 2014 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Swap for Existing Debt - Private Placement (RMB billion) Swap for Existing Debt - Public Auction (RMBbillion) New Issuance - Public Auction (RMBbillion) Source: Bond prospectuses » In 2016, RLG bonds for debt swap program accounted for 80% of the RMB6 trillion total bond issuance. » Issuance peaked in April 2016 at RMB1,065 billion. 7 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 13 Government debt swap program accounted for most bond issuance in 2016. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 90 180 270 360 450 Swap for Existing Debt - Private Placement - right axis Swap for Existing Debt - Public Auction - right axis New Issuance - Public Auction - right axis Amount (RMB billion) - left axis Source: Bond prospectuses » Tibet issued its debut RLG bonds in 2016, which were all for new money. » In contrast, Guizhou, Liaoning and Hunan have issued less than 10% new money bonds. Exhibit 14 Bonds issued in 2016 continued to lengthen the RLGs' overall maturity profile. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 90 180 270 360 450 3 year - right axis 5 year - right axis 7 year - right axis 10 year - right axis Amount (RMB billion) - left axis Source: Bond prospectuses » All issuers on average have half of their bonds with maturities of 7- and 10-year. » Tibet, as a new issuer, was focus on 3-year bonds. 8 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 15 About 85% of the estimated debt due in 2016 has been refinanced through bond issuance. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 Debt Maturing in 2016 (RMBbillion) - left axis Share of Maturing Debt Swapped into Bonds - right axis Source: Bond prospectuses and provincial finance bureaus » Nine RLGs have refinanced all of their estimated debt due in 2016 through swap bonds. » Another 4 RLGs have refinanced more than 80% of their due debt. Exhibit 16 Secondary market trading volume continued to grow in Q4 2016 (RMB billion). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Source: China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. » Trading volume in November peaked at RMB302 billion, equivalent to 3% of total RLG bonds outstanding. » Trading volume in 2016 was more than six times that of 2015 as a whole. 9 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 17 Secondary market yield went up along with sovereign bonds in Q4 2016 compared with Q3. 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% RLG Bond Sovereign Bond Source: China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. Exhibit 18 Publicly auctioned RLG bonds reveal increasing differentiation of risk pricing across provinces. 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Amount (2016, RMB billion) - left axis 5-year Yield Spread Over Sovereign Bond at Issuance (2016) - right axis Source: Bond prospectuses Exhibit 19 In contrast, the risk pricing for privately placed RLG bonds fell within a tighter range of 14 basis points. 0.15% 0.25% 0.35% 0.45% 0 40 80 120 160 Amount (2016, RMB billion) - left axis 5-year Yield Spread over Sovereign Bond at Issuance (2016) - right axis Source: Bond prospectuses 10 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Appendices Exhibit 20 Table 1. Offshore Bond Issuance by Local State-Owned Enterprises (as of 31 December 2016) Sponsoring Government Parent Company of Issuer Rating Issue Date Amount (million) Currency Tenor (years) Coupon Rate (%) Bloomberg ID Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 29-Jul-15 600 EUR 4 1.500 UV3124731 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 14-Jul-15 50 USD 3 2.500 AF2431696 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 19-Mar-15 500 EUR 3 1.000 EK7881973 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 13-Feb-15 300 HKD 5 2.800 EK7343891 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 20-Nov-14 300 USD 6 3.250 EK5933933 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 20-Nov-14 925 USD 3 2.625 EK6035449 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 9-Jul-14 600 HKD 3 2.350 EK3605699 Beijing Beijing Infrastructure Investment A1/ NEG 20-Mar-14 300 USD 5 3.625 EK1153189 Beijing Beijing State-Owned Assets Management A2/ STA 26-May-15 700 USD 10 4.125 EK9077950 Beijing Beijing State-Owned Assets Management A2/ STA 26-May-15 300 USD 5 3.000 EK9216780 Beijing Beijing Energy A3/ NEG 28-Jul-15 300 EUR 3 1.500 UV3253324 Beijing Beijing Energy A3/ NEG 26-Feb-14 300 USD 3 2.750 EK0848995 Beijing Beijing Automotive Group Baa1/ NEG 2-Nov-15 500 EUR 5 1.900 QJ3696706 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 17-Dec-15 200 USD 25 4.990 QJ9903460 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 15-May-15 700 HKD 5 3.900 EK9071839 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 7-May-15 500 EUR 5 1.435 EK8724289 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 6-May-13 500 USD 5 4.625 EJ6349322 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 25-Apr-12 800 USD 10 4.500 EJ1380009 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 12-May-11 600 USD 10 5.000 EI6599407 Beijing Beijing Enterprises Baa1/ STA 12-May-11 400 USD 30 6.375 EI6599449 Beijing Beijing Capital Group Baa3/ NEG 23-Apr-15 100 USD 3 4.200 EK8649460 Beijing Beijing Capital Group Baa3/ NEG 1-Apr-15 600 USD 3 2.875 EK8272933 Beijing Beijing Capital Group Baa3/ NEG 9-Jul-13 100 USD 3 4.000 EK6302930 Beijing Beijing Capital Land Ba3/ NEG 2-Dec-14 450 USD Perpetual 7.125 EK6250121 Beijing Beijing Capital Land Ba3/ NEG 8-Apr-13 400 USD Perpetual 8.375 EJ6083228 Beijing Beijing Construction Engineering -- 10-Jun-15 500 USD 3 3.850 EK9439036 Shanghai Shanghai Electric A2/ STA 22-May-15 600 EUR 5 1.125 EK8997984 Shanghai Shanghai Electric A2/ STA 14-Aug-14 500 USD 5 3.000 EK4187713 Shanghai Shanghai Construction Baa1/ NEG 21-Jul-15 400 USD 5 3.750 AF2691893 Shanghai Shanghai Huayi Baa3/ NEG 2-Dec-14 350 USD 5 4.000 EK6241500 Shanghai Bright Food Baa3/ NEG 3-Jun-16 400 EUR 3 1.625 LW1093373 Shanghai Bright Food Baa3/ NEG 21-May-13 500 USD 5 3.000 EJ6679793 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 22-Dec-16 180 USD 3 4.375 AL8422530 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 6-Sep-16 300 USD 3 3.500 QZ3723710 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 28-Jul-16 450 USD 3 3.875 LW9737476 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 27-Jul-16 120 USD Perpetual 5.625 LW9920809 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 16-Sep-15 300 USD 2 4.300 UV8565508 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 17-Oct-14 500 USD 3 3.500 EK5385852 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 10-Oct-14 100 USD 3 Floating EK5231718 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 7-Aug-14 500 USD 3 4.375 EK4094661 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 3-Jul-14 400 USD 5 4.375 EK3548907 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 3-Jul-14 600 USD 10 5.875 EK3549442 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 10-Mar-14 2,000 HKD 6 6.000 EK1106849 Shanghai Greenland Ba1/ NEG 18-Oct-13 700 USD 3 4.750 EJ8691721 Tianjin Tianjin Rail Transit Group A2/ NEG 13-May-16 200 USD 3 2.500 JK9343258 Tianjin Tianjin Rail Transit Group A2/ NEG 13-May-16 300 USD 5 2.875 LW0208816 Tianjin Binhai Construction & Investment A3/ NEG 23-Jul-15 300 USD 3 3.100 AF2692867 Tianjin Binhai Construction & Investment A3/ NEG 23-Jul-15 500 USD 5 4.000 AF2798474 Tianjin Tianjin Free Trade Zone Investment Baa1/ NEG 9-Dec-15 500 USD 3 3.625 QJ9754129 Tianjin Binhai Investment Ba1/ NEG 6-May-15 200 USD 3 3.250 EK8805716 Tianjin Binhai Investment Ba1/ NEG 5-Aug-13 310 HKD 3 1.000 EJ7707825 Tianjin Tianjin Infrastructure Construction & Investment -- 15-Jun-16 500 USD 3 2.750 LW2966346 11 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 20 continuation Sponsoring Government Parent Company of Issuer Rating Issue Date Amount (million) Currency Tenor (years) Coupon Rate (%) Bloomberg ID Guangdong Guangzhou Metro A2/ NEG 1-Jun-16 200 USD 3 2.317 LW2509138 Guangdong Guangzhou Metro A2/ NEG 3-Dec-15 200 USD 5 3.375 QJ9358954 Guangdong Guangzhou Metro A2/ NEG 3-Dec-15 400 USD 3 2.875 QJ9358947 Guangdong Guangzhou Communications Investment Baa1/ NEG 4-Jun-15 400 USD 3 3.000 EK9418725 Guangdong Guangzhou Yuexiu REIT Baa3/ STA 14-May-13 350 USD 5 3.100 EJ6681096 Guangdong Guangzhou Yuexiu Transport Baa2/ STA 7-May-15 200 EUR 3 1.625 EK8881105 Guangdong Guangzhou Yuexiu Property Baa3/ NEG 28-Nov-14 2,300 HKD 15 6.100 EK6248109 Guangdong Guangzhou Yuexiu Property Baa3/ NEG 24-Jan-13 350 USD 5 3.250 EJ5119759 Guangdong Guangzhou Yuexiu Property Baa3/ NEG 24-Jan-13 500 USD 10 4.500 EJ5184944 Guangdong Guangdong Rising Asset Management -- 2-Nov-15 500 USD 5 2.750 QJ9458382 Shenzhen Shenzhen Expressway Baa2/ STA 18-Jul-16 300 USD 5 2.875 LW7442806 Shenzhen Shenzhen International Baa3/ STA 20-Apr-12 300 USD 5 4.375 EJ1238389 Shandong Yanzhou Coal Mining B2/ NEG 31-Mar-16 606 USD 9 8.750 JK6122515 Shandong Yanzhou Coal Mining B2/ NEG 31-Mar-16 151 USD 9 0.000 JK6122580 Shandong Yanzhou Coal Mining B2/ NEG 22-May-14 300 USD Perpetual 7.200 EK2756535 Shandong Yanzhou Coal Mining B2/ NEG 16-May-12 450 USD 5 4.461 EJ1924210, EJ1530926 (144A) Shandong Yanzhou Coal Mining B2/ NEG 16-May-12 550 USD 10 5.730 EJ1924269, EJ1923519 (144A) Shandong Jinan West City Investment & Development -- 11-Oct-16 300 USD 5 3.125 QZ6160951 Qingdao Qingdao City Construction & Investment -- 30-Sep-15 500 USD Perpetual 4.900 UV8429796 Qingdao Qingdao City Construction & Investment -- 12-Feb-15 500 USD 5 4.750 EK7335434 Qingdao Qingdao City Construction & Investment -- 12-Feb-15 300 USD 10 5.950 EK7403141 Zhejiang Zhejiang Energy A1/ NEG 30-Sep-14 300 USD 3 2.300 EK4982261 Zhejiang Shaoxing City Construction & Investment -- 12-Apr-16 300 USD 3 4.750 JK6122424 Hunan Zhuzhou City Construction Development Baa3/ STA 19-Oct-16 300 USD 3 2.980 QZ8703089 Hunan Changsha Pilot Investment -- 2-Dec-16 350 USD 3 3.100 AL3515551 Anhui Anhui Transportation A3/ NEG 11-Jun-15 300 USD 3 2.875 EK9586372 Jilin Changchun Urban Development Baa1/ STA 22-Mar-16 400 USD 5 4.000 JK3831407 Guangxi Guangxi Communications Investment Baa3/STA 3-Nov-16 300 USD 3 3.000 QZ9785341 Jiangsu Jiangsu Fangyang Group -- 29-Sep-16 200 USD 3 5.350 QZ6622786 Jiangsu Huai'an Traffic -- 25-Oct-16 300 USD 3 4.950 QZ9221677 Jiangsu Huai'an Development -- 14-Jul-16 300 USD 3 4.750 LW7226365 Jiangsu Zhengjiang Culture & Tourism -- 1-Dec-16 230 USD 3 4.950 AL4313287 Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hanrui Overseas Investment -- 28-Jun-16 300 USD 3 4.900 LW5325110 Jiangsu Wuxi City Construction & Investment -- 27-Jun-16 300 USD 3 3.250 LW4572191 Jiangsu Xuzhou Economic Technology Development Zone -- 16-Jun-16 300 USD 3 4.500 LW3919849 Jiangsu Lianyungang NewHeadLine Development -- 11-Jan-16 300 USD 3 6.200 JV5013893 Jiangsu Yancheng Oriental Investment -- 22-Nov-16 300 USD 3 5.150 AL2797440 Chongqing Western Logistics Industry Zone Development -- 6-Sep-16 500 USD 5 3.250 QZ2550783 Chongqing Nan'an Urban Construction & Development -- 17-Aug-16 200 USD 10 4.500 QZ1871446 Chongqing Nan'an Urban Construction & Development -- 19-Jul-16 300 USD 3 2.875 LW7220004 Chongqing Nan'an Urban Construction & Development -- 19-Jul-16 500 USD 5 3.625 LW8506674 Chongqing Wansheng Eco Tech District Investment -- 28-Jul-16 70 USD 2 4.300 LW9739860 Yunnan Yunnan Urban Construction & Investment -- 12-Jul-16 500 USD 3 3.125 LW7423756 Yunnan Yunnan Energy -- 26-Apr-16 300 USD 3 3.000 JK8193878 Yunnan Yunnan Investment Group -- 1-Apr-16 300 USD 3 3.375 JK5741455 Guizhou Zunyi Tourism Industry -- 12-Sep-16 250 USD 3 5.700 QZ5249417 Shaanxi Xi'an Municipal Construction & Investment -- 13-Sep-16 500 USD 3 2.800 QZ3728164 Sichuan Chengdu Xingcheng Investment -- 29-Nov-16 300 USD 5 3.250 AL2761958 Source: Bloomberg LP 12 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 21 Table 2. Onshore Bond Issuance by Regional and Local Governments (Q4 2016) Issuer Date New swap 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr Xinjiang * 14-Dec 1.2 0.6 0.6 20 20 AL6651577 AL6651734 Guangdong 9-Dec 0.3 0.3 0 AL5491256 Guangdong * 9-Dec 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.9 0 0 0 AL5490225 AL5491512 AL5494359 Shanghai 8-Dec 3.0 3.0 19 AL5185163 Inner Mongolia 6-Dec 18.0 1.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 15 30 33 45 AL4705243 AL4705904 AL4706993 AL4710375 Inner Mongolia * 6-Dec 3.0 1.5 1.5 30 45 AL4705607 AL4705912 Jiangsu 2-Dec 4.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0 0 0 0 AL4456995 AL4463678 AL4464569 AL4464825 Jiangsu * 2-Dec 11.2 2.3 3.4 3.4 2.3 0 0 0 0 AL4455682 AL4464437 AL4464767 AL4465152 Jilin 1-Dec 0.6 0.6 20 AL4335306 Tianjin 1-Dec 8.2 4.9 3.4 10 19 AL4331313 AL4332089 Tianjin * 1-Dec 20.7 6.8 6.0 2.5 5.4 19 19 10 29 AL4322874 AL4325802 AL4328277 AL4330612 Beijing 30-Nov 0.4 0.4 5 AL4177369 Beijing * 30-Nov 6.1 3.0 1.5 1.6 1 1 5 AL4168715 AL4176015 AL4176338 Tibet 29-Nov 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 0 0 0 AL3861195 AL3864264 AL3872598 AL3874354 Tibet * 29-Nov 0.3 0.3 0 AL3854596 Xinjiang 22-Nov 1.1 6.0 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.4 3 3 10 10 AL2788589 AL2791641 AL2793837 AL2795410 Xinjiang * 22-Nov 1.6 3.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 3 3 10 10 AL2786138 AL2786922 AL2788555 AL2795915 Yunnan 18-Nov 25.0 4.5 7.8 12.7 5 8 10 AL2132598 AL2132895 AL2132911 Yunnan * 18-Nov 9.6 4.6 5.0 5 8 AL2214503 AL2215252 Hebei 17-Nov 0.1 3.5 3.6 0 AL1813057 Hainan * 17-Nov 6.6 2.7 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.6 4 5 9 14 AL1812265 AL1817678 AL1836462 AL1838567 Dalian 15-Nov 2.2 5.6 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.6 13 22 34 34 AL1356677 AL1358129 AL1359952 AL1362717 Dalian * 15-Nov 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 24 29 36 40 AL1356768 AL1357709 AL1357972 AL1358053 Shaanxi 14-Nov 6.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 AL1342669 AL1343006 AL1343543 AL1346439 Shanghai 11-Nov 30.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 5 5 8 10 AL1208597 AL1209272 AL1209827 AL1209843 Hunan 10-Nov 35.0 20.0 15.0 15 20 AL1188245 AL1188252 Hunan * 10-Nov 35.0 15.0 20.0 22 25 AL1194227 AL1198343 Xiamen 8-Nov 2.4 7.1 1.9 2.9 2.9 1.9 0 0 0 0 AL0709751 AL0709934 AL0710460 AL0710874 Xiamen * 8-Nov 4.9 1.7 3.3 3.3 0 0 AL0725385 AL0725484 Shanxi 8-Nov 7.6 2.3 0.8 2.3 2.3 0 0 0 0 AL0717556 AL0717762 AL0719412 AL0724453 Shanxi * 8-Nov 4.7 2.4 2.3 0 0 AL0702954 AL0709405 Guangdong * 7-Nov 0.4 7.3 3.8 1.6 2.3 0 0 0 AL0600695 AL0601792 AL0601842 Guangxi 4-Nov 6.7 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 5 8 8 15 AL0466287 AL0466956 AL0468010 AL0469059 Guangxi * 4-Nov 10.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 8 8 15 AL0586167 AL0586191 AL0586225 AL0586258 Guizhou 4-Nov 1.0 11.0 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.4 0 0 11 14 AL0493711 AL0501083 AL0502305 AL0506702 Guizhou * 4-Nov 8.0 1.6 2.4 2.4 1.6 0 0 2 8 AL0482029 AL0485709 AL0485949 AL0486236 Zhejiang 3-Nov 20.4 2.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 0 0 0 0 AL0454648 AL0454713 AL0454887 AL0454937 Zhejiang * 3-Nov 21.8 4.4 6.5 4.4 6.5 0 0 0 0 AL0330434 AL0331457 AL0331515 AL0331994 Sichuan 28-Oct 30.6 9.1 9.1 9.1 3.3 5 5 8 19 QZ9640603 QZ9641775 QZ9643714 QZ9643847 Sichuan * 28-Oct 8.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.8 10 14 8 39 QZ9638748 QZ9638987 QZ9640348 QZ9640405 Chongqing 25-Oct 13.6 2.8 4.0 4.0 2.8 0 0 0 0 QZ9241287 QZ9245734 QZ9246336 QZ9246468 Chongqing * 25-Oct 11.8 5.9 5.9 0 0 QZ9237848 QZ9238101 Liaoning 25-Oct 7.3 9.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.7 4 6 7 9 QZ9247185 QZ9248050 QZ9248795 QZ9253977 Liaoning * 25-Oct 1.1 4.0 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.3 5 7 7 10 QZ9235057 QZ9235362 QZ9235487 QZ9235511 Inner Mongolia 20-Oct 40.4 4.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 7 10 14 20 QZ8881174 QZ8881240 QZ8883733 QZ8884335 Inner Mongolia * 20-Oct 1.9 1.0 1.0 10 20 QZ8876539 QZ8877503 Shandong 18-Oct 23.6 4.7 7.1 7.1 4.7 2 2 5 8 QZ8579034 QZ8580826 QZ8580909 QZ8580966 Shandong * 18-Oct 18.2 3.6 5.5 5.5 3.6 2 2 5 8 QZ8550894 QZ8551314 QZ8551405 QZ8551561 Shandong * 18-Oct 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 2 2 5 8 QZ8551421 QZ8553476 QZ8556974 QZ8579158 Qingdao 17-Oct 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 QZ8446531 QZ8446713 QZ8447729 QZ8450210 Qingdao * 17-Oct 3.2 1.6 0.6 1.0 0 0 0 QZ8434982 QZ8435484 QZ8435534 Qinghai 14-Oct 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 QZ8424876 QZ8424900 QZ8424934 QZ8424967 Hunan * 14-Oct 65.0 20.0 20.0 25.0 0 0 10 QZ8424546 QZ8424579 QZ8424611 Anhui 11-Oct 17.3 5.1 5.0 3.6 3.6 0 0 0 0 QZ7294221 QZ7297356 QZ7297539 QZ7297950 Anhui * 11-Oct 15.5 7.8 7.7 0 0 QZ7296762 QZ7297398 Jiangsu 10-Oct 51.9 10.5 15.5 15.5 10.4 0 0 0 0 QZ7153583 QZ7153997 QZ7154565 QZ7154789 Jiangsu * 10-Oct 40.6 8.3 12.1 12.1 8.1 0 0 0 0 QZ7154847 QZ7165892 QZ7166957 QZ7170462 Public Auction Amount (RMB billion) Amount (RMBbillion) Spread vsSovereign Yield (bp) Bloomberg ID 13 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Exhibit 21 continuation Issuer Date New swap 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr Guangdong 9-Dec 5.4 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 40 43 46 46 AL6635000 AL6637626 AL6637691 AL6637899 Guangdong * 9-Dec 9.9 4.9 2.0 3.0 43 46 46 AL6638111 AL6637980 AL6639309 Tianjin 2-Dec 0.6 0.6 39 AL5168417 Tianjin * 2-Dec 12.7 5.8 3.7 3.2 39 44 44 AL5168425 AL5168474 AL5168532 Beijing 29-Nov 7.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.8 38 40 43 42 AL4698042 AL4698141 AL4698232 AL4698257 Beijing * 29-Nov 6.3 1.3 1.7 2.5 0.8 38 40 43 42 AL4705052 AL4705193 AL4705326 AL4705383 Yunnan 18-Nov 10.6 1.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 36 39 325 43 AL3191338 AL3193185 AL3194415 AL3194928 Yunnan * 18-Nov 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 36 39 43 AL3195891 AL3197483 AL3197574 Hainan 16-Nov 9.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.8 35 38 42 42 AL3099440 AL3108860 AL3121517 AL3138925 Hainan * 16-Nov 4.7 2.3 2.4 38 42 AL3153544 AL3165506 Dalian 15-Nov 15.6 3.1 4.7 4.7 3.1 35 38 41 42 AL2786559 AL2786823 AL2799347 AL2786864 Dalian * 15-Nov 10.5 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.1 35 38 41 42 AL2786948 AL2787219 AL2787706 AL2788159 Ningxia 11-Nov 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 36 38 42 42 AL1446676 AL1446684 AL1446692 AL1446734 Ningxia * 11-Nov 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 36 38 42 42 AL1446767 AL1446791 AL1446817 AL1446858 Xiamen 9-Nov 6.7 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 35 37 41 41 AL1614935 AL1615247 AL1615254 AL1615379 Xiamen * 9-Nov 9.3 4.7 4.7 37 41 AL1615437 AL1615460 Hubei 28-Oct 23.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 2.4 35 36 40 41 QZ9977567 QZ9979621 QZ9980322 QZ9981510 Hubei * 28-Oct 38.1 19.1 7.6 11.4 36 40 41 QZ9981973 QZ9984621 QZ9984894 Qingdao 17-Oct 7.2 0.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 36 37 40 41 QZ9139499 QZ9140398 QZ9140455 QZ9140786 Qinghai 14-Oct 7.0 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 36 38 40 40 QZ8707072 QZ8707270 QZ8707684 QZ8708302 Qinghai * 14-Oct 2.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 36 38 40 40 QZ8708336 QZ8708344 QZ8708377 QZ8708385 Fujian 13-Oct 7.1 0.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 36 38 41 40 QZ8879475 QZ8879624 QZ8880473 QZ8880549 Fujian * 13-Oct 24.3 12.1 12.1 38 40 QZ8849338 QZ8849387 Private Placement (issuance all for swaping existing debt) Amount (RMB billion) Amount (RMBbillion) Spread vsSovereign Yield (bp) Bloomberg ID * Denotes special purpose bonds, others are general obligation bonds. Source: Bond prospectuses and Bloomberg LP 14 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Moody's Related Research Sector In-Depth: » Infrastructure and Project Finance – China: Public-Private Partnerships: Government Support Provides Strong Growth Potential, March 2017 (1059454) » China Government: Local Government Incentives Hinder Central Government Reform Agenda, February 2017 (1042165) » Regional and Local Governments – China: FAQ: RLGs’ Approach to Supporting Distressed State-Owned Enterprises (1042777) » Regional and Local Governments - China: Key Factors Shaping Standalone Credit Strength, August 2016 (1036120) » Regional and Local Government (RLG)-Related Issuers - China: Moody's Support Assumptions for Entities Owned by Chinese RLGs, August 2016 (1032608) » Regional and Local Governments - China: Stabilization Benefit of Property Taxes Will Take Time to Materialize, June 2016 (1027752) » Assessing the Standalone Credit Profiles of Lower-Tier Chinese RLGs, April 2016 (1015726) » Falling Land Sales to Weaken Chinese RLGs' Credit Profile , October 2015 (1006979) » Benefits of PPP Infrastructure Funding in China Will Take Time to Materialize, July 2015 (1004955) » Improving Public Sector Transparency: a cross-country comparison (China, Italy, Spain, Germany, US, Mexico), June 2015 (1003709) » China's Regional and Local Governments: Upper Tiers Show High Level of Creditworthiness, March 2015 (1002393) » China's Nascent Regional and Local Government Bond Market: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions, February 2015 (1003288) Sector Comments: » Regional and Local Governments - China: 2017 Outlook - High Leverage of State-owned Enterprises Drives Negative Outlook, December 2016 (1052144) » China Credit Market:Dongbei Special Steel Bankruptcy Highlights Restructuring Shift for SOEs (1043458) » China's Intra-Governmental Fiscal Reform Will Reduce Regional and Local Government Deficits, September 2016 (191897) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Bond Program Continues, a Credit Positive, February 2016 (187451) » Regional and Local Governments - China: 2016 Outlook - Slowing economic growth and lack of debt transparency drive negative outlook (Presentation), December 2015 (186285) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Debt Update Shows Credit-Negative Rise in Leverage, September 2015 (184108) » China Broadens Provincial Pension Fund Investment Options, a Credit Positive, August 2015 (184040) » Chinese Policies Allow Higher Leverage for Local Government Financing Vehicles, a Credit Negative, May 2015 (1005508) » Chinese Province Extends Maturity Schedule with First 2015 Bond Issuance, May 2015 (181327) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Bonds Qualify as Collateral for Central Bank Lending Facilities, a Credit Positive, May 2015 (1005186) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Land Sales Slowed Sharply in 2014, a Credit Negative, March 2015 (180229) 15 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN » Chinese Regional and Local Governments Get Better Access to Financing, a Credit Positive, March 2015 (179903) » China's Hainan Province Is First to Publish Debt Update, Shows Credit-Negative Rise in Leverage, February 2015 (179217) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Revenue Growth Slows Sharply, February 2015 (179018) » China's Pilot Bond Program for Regional and Local Governments Expands, a Credit Positive, January 2015 (178573) Newsletters: » Chinese Sub-Sovereign Monitor, February 2017 (194060) » Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, November 2016 (1043287) » Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, September 2016 (1037525) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, May 2016 (1026933) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, February 2016 (1015763) » China Sub-Sovereign Monitor, January 2016 (178671) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, November 2015 (1009644) » Chinese Regional and Local Government Debt and Finances Snapshot, September 2015 (1008110) » Chinese Sub-Sovereign Monitor, February 2015 (178538) » Chinese Sub-Sovereign Monitor, January 2014 (161842) Rating Methodologies: » Regional and Local Governments, January 2013 (147779) » Government-Related Issuers, October 2014 (173845) » Methodology for Rating Public Universities, August 2007(103498) » Operational Privately Financed Public Infrastructure (PFI/PPP/P3) Projects, March 2015 (176194) » Construction Risk in Privately Financed Public Infrastructure (PFI/PPP/P3) Projects, April 2014 (165887) To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients. 16 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN Endnotes 1 See “Property – China: Chinese Developers Face Rising competition Amid Differentiated Government Policies,”13 March 2017. 17 30 March 2017 Regional and Local Governments - China: Debt and Finances Snapshot MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN © 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. 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