New York, November 28, 2012 -- Moody's has affirmed one class and downgraded one class of Certificate issued by COMM 2010-RR1 due to deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying collateral, as evidenced by a rating action dated November 16, 2012 on the Underlying Certificate. The affirmation is due to key transaction parameters performing within levels commensurate with the existing ratings levels. The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE Non-Pooled Re-REMIC) transactions.
Cl. GEA, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 18, 2010 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. GEB, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Sep 16, 2011 Downgraded to A2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
COMM 2010-RR1 is a non-pooled pass through trust backed by $178 million, or 19.2% of the aggregate class principal balance, of the super senior Class A-4 commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) Certificates issued by GE Commercial Mortgage Corporation, Series 2007-C1 Trust, (the "Underlying Certificate").
On November 16, 2012, Moody's downgraded the Class A-4 Certificates of GECMC 2007-C1 due to negative credit migration of the underlying collateral and higher expected losses for the pool. Moody's rating action for GECMC 2007-C1 reflected a base expected loss of 14.5% of the current balance. Moody's also reported a stressed scenario loss of 33.1% of the current balance for the transaction. Depending on the magnitude, severity, and timing of losses from specially serviced loans and the balance of the pool, along with any loan payoffs, sequential paydowns may not reach this class. At the same time, losses are likely to erode the credit enhancement cushion for the super senior classes creating a potential differential in expected loss between those super senior classes benefiting first from paydowns and those classes receiving paydowns last.
Updates to key parameters, including the constant default rate (CDR), constant prepayment rate (CPR), weighted average life (WAL), and weighted average recovery rate (WARR), did not materially change the expected loss estimate of the Certificates resulting in the affirmations.
Within the resecuritization, the WAL of the Class A-4 Certificates of GECMC 2007-C1 is 4.2 years assuming a 0%/0% CDR/CPR. For delinquent loans (30+ days, REO, foreclosure, bankrupt), Moody's assumes a fixed WARR of 40% while a fixed WARR of 50% for current loans. Moody's also ran a sensitivity analysis to a fixed WARR of 40% for current loans. This resulted in 3 notches downward to the Class GEB certificate.
Since the ratings of the non-pooled re-remic Certificates are linked to the rating of the Underlying Certificate which in turn are linked to the performance of the underlying commercial mortgage pool's performance, any rating action on the underlying certificate may trigger a review of the ratings of the certificates.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodological approach used in these ratings are as follows: Moody's applied ratings-specific cash flow scenarios assuming different loss timing, recovery and prepayment assumptions on the underlying pool of mortgages that are the collateral for the underlying CMBS transaction through Structured Finance Workstation® (SFW), the cash flow model developed by Moody's Wall Street Analytics. The analysis incorporates performance variances across the different pools and the structural features of the transaction including priorities of payment distribution among the different tranches, tranche average life, current tranche balance and future cash flows under expected and stressed scenarios. In each scenario, cash flows and losses from the underlying collateral were analyzed applying different stresses at each rating level. The resulting ratings specific stressed cash flows were then input into the structure of the resecuritization to determine expected losses for each class. The expected losses were then compared to the idealized expected loss for each class to gauge the appropriateness of the existing rating. The stressed assumptions considered, among other factors, the underlying transaction's collateral attributes, past and current performance, and Moody's current negative performance outlook for commercial real estate.
The other methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities" published in April 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
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Kumud Jha Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Deryk Meherik VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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