Issuer: HSBC México, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC, División Fiduciaria (HSBC), acting solely in its role as trustee.
Certificados Bursátiles Fiduciarios TFOVIE 11U (Class A Certificates), rated Aaa.mx (sf) (Mexican National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency), previously on Sep 10, 2012 (Global Scale, Local Currency) Confirmed at Baa1 (sf) and (Mexican National Scale) Confirmed at Aaa.mx (sf).
BACKGROUND AND RATING RATIONALE
In April 2012, Moody's assigned ratings to the subject TFOVIE 11U Class A Certificates. At that time, investors of the TFOVI E11U certificates -- originally issued and rated in August 2011 -- opted to amend the transaction documents to cancel the original certificates and substitute them with the newly issued TFOVIE 11U certificates. The ratings that Moody's assigned to the existing TFOVIE 11U certificates are the same as the ratings previously assigned to the cancelled TFOVI E11U certificates; the existing certificates also have the same financial terms as the cancelled certificates and are backed by the same collateral. As of April 2012, the transaction documents stated that HSBC intended to register the existing certificates with the Comisión Nacional Bancaria de Valores (CNBV) and list them with the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV).
As of today, the process to register the certificates with the CNBV and file them with the BMV is ongoing. As part of this process, the parties have made some modifications to the existing transaction documents. After reviewing these changes, Moody's has determined that the changes are not of a credit nature. Moody's notes that the parties plan to subsequently change Class A's ticker name to TFOVIE 12U from TFOVIE 11U once they are registered and filed in Mexico.
The current ratings are based on the following:
-- The credit quality of the pool, which is comprised of minimum wage-denominated (VSM), fixed-rate, first-lien, residential mortgage loans secured by low-income housing in Mexico.
-- Class A's credit enhancement of 48.7% as of September 30, 2012 in the form of loan overcollateralization and reserve account funds.
-- Class A's coupon of 4.5%, its legal final maturity date of December 31, 2024 and its expected final payment date of December 31, 2021.
-- The priority of payments waterfall and Class A's scheduled principal payment calendar.
-- The strong historical performance of the securitized pool and the updated pool characteristics as of September 30, 2012.
-- FOVISSSTE's financial stability as servicer, given its status as a government-related institution and its position as the second largest mortgage originator in Mexico.
-- FOVISSSTE's incentive to perform its duties as servicer given its role as a Mexican government-related institution with a social mission to alleviate the housing shortage by granting mortgages to primarily low-income borrowers.
-- FOVISSSTE's strong alignment of interests with investors, given its ownership in the residual certificate.
-- The well-established Mexican laws governing mortgage securitization.
As of September 30, 2012, the pool was comprised of 33,312 mortgage loans with an aggregate outstanding balance of approximately MXN$8,798 million and the pool had the following weighted average characteristics: an original loan-to-value (LTV) of 91.6%, a current LTV of 61.1%, a payment-to-income ratio of 30%, seasoning of 60 months, coupon of 5.7% and an average loan amount of MXN$264,112. The underlying borrowers had an average monthly income of approximately 5.6 VSMs.
The notes are denominated in UDIs and have a fixed interest rate of 4.5%. On each quarterly payment date, after covering expenses, mortgage collections and available reserve account funds will be used to first pay Class A interest and then Class A principal according to a defined payment schedule. Any remaining collections may be released to Fovissste as the residual holder only if all of the following conditions are met: i) the reserve account contains the minimum liquidity amount (two quarterly Class A principal and interest payments), ii) interest collections equal at least 1.5 times the next quarterly Class A interest payment, and iii) the overcollateralization coverage ratio is greater than 2.5 times (it is calculated as the non-defaulted pool balance plus the reserve account balance, divided by the outstanding Class A balance). If these three conditions are not met, any remaining cash after paying Class A interest and principal will be used to fund the reserve account.
For more details regarding our credit analysis for this transaction, please refer to the New Issue Report, available on www.moodys.com and titled "Fovissste -- TFOVI E11U", dated August 22, 2011.
In issuing and monitoring this rating, Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. considered the existence and extent of arrangements and mechanism, if any, to align the incentives of the originator, servicer and guarantor of the securities with those of its potential acquirers.
Credit ratings incorporate Moody's macroeconomic outlook and its implications on key variables that may include but not be limited to interest rates, inflation, economic growth, unemployment, performance of counterparties, credit availability, sector level changes in competitive conditions, supply/demand and margins, and issuer specific changes in capital structure, competitive positioning, governance, risk profile, and liquidity. Unexpected changes in such variables may lead to changes in the credit rating level, potentially by several notches. Further information on the sensitivity of the rating to specific assumptions is included in this disclosure.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Mexican RMBS", published August 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of this methodology.
Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered for the ratings can also be found at www.moodys.com.mx in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab.
For this transaction, Moody's assumed a cumulative gross default and a severity of loss of 34.8% and 82.2% respectively, calculated as a percentage of the initial pool balance in the most likely stress-case model scenario. The expected net loss for this pool in the most likely stress-case model scenario is 28.6%. Cumulative prepayments over the life of this transaction are assumed to equal 7.1% of the initial pool balance and they are timed along a prepayment curve.
Future performance of this RMBS transaction is linked to the unemployment rate. Future performance can be affected negatively under an economic slowdown scenario with high levels of unemployment that could pressure FOVISSSTE's ability to collect payments under the loans. The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the unemployment level. If a borrower loses his job in the public government sector, FOVISSSTE will not have the ability to automatically deduct the mortgage payment from the borrower's payroll. At the same time, the borrowers' available income to repay the mortgage loan could be substantially reduced in a weak macroeconomic environment.
The V Score for this transaction indicates Medium/High uncertainty about critical assumptions, in line with the Medium/High score for the FOVISSSTE/Infonavit RMBS sector. V Scores are a relative assessment of the quality of available credit information and of the degree of dependence on various assumptions used in determining the rating. High variability in key assumptions could expose a rating to more likelihood of rating changes. The factors contributing to the weak V Score are limited performance history of the emerging market asset class, the limited experience of key transaction parties and the level of legal and regulatory uncertainty. V Scores are intended to rank transactions by the potential for significant rating changes owing to uncertainty around the assumptions due to data quality, historical performance, the level of disclosure, transaction complexity, the modeling and the transaction governance that underlie the ratings.
Moody's parameter sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's-rated structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. Qualitative factors are also taken into consideration in the ratings process, so the actual ratings that would be assigned in each case could vary from the information presented in the parameter sensitivity analysis. The results generated by rating models are one of many inputs to the rating process. Ratings are determined collectively through the exercise of judgment by rating committees, which evaluate many quantitative and qualitative factors.
Moody's key ratings-model assumption for this transaction is the stressed cumulative gross default percentage. In the parameter sensitivity analysis, if the assumed cumulative gross default of 34.8% used in determining the initial rating were changed to 54.5% or 59.5%, the model-indicated rating for the Class A notes would change from Baa1 (sf)/Aaa.mx (sf) to Baa3 (sf)/Aa3.mx (sf) and Ba3 (sf)/A3.mx (sf) respectively. It should be noted that the cumulative gross default assumption is already a stressed assumption and is higher than Moody's expected case.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available on www.moodys.com.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.
A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process, and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure tab in www.moodys.com.mx.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third-party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF269939.
In issuing this credit opinion, Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. did not rely on ratings issued by any other credit rating agency over this issuer/security or any underlying securities.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com.mx for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com.mx for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.
Karen Ramallo Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Maria Ines Muller Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V Ave.Paseo de las Palmas No. 405 - 502 Col. Lomas de Chapultepec Mexico, DF 11000 Mexico JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833 SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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