Frankfurt am Main, November 09, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Finansbank AS's long-term local-currency deposit and foreign-currency senior unsecured debt ratings to Ba2 from Ba1, and confirmed the bank's Ba2 foreign-currency deposit rating. The rating action results from Moody's lowering of Finansbank's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to E+ (equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b2) from D+/ba1. All ratings carry a negative outlook.
The lowering of Finansbank's standalone credit assessment reflects Moody's opinion that the credit quality of parent banks and their subsidiaries are typically linked. Finansbank is the Turkish subsidiary of National Bank of Greece, S.A. (NBG: Caa2/NP, negative; E/caa3 stable).
Today's actions on Finansbank conclude Moody's review initiated on 16 March 2012 and extended on 3 July 2012.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- DOWNGRADE OF DEBT RATING AND CONFIRMATION OF DEPOSIT RATINGS
Moody's downgrade of the local-currency deposit and foreign-currency senior unsecured debt ratings to Ba2 from Ba1 follow the downgrade of the bank's BFSR, mitigated by Moody's view that there is a high probability of governmental support for Finansbank, given its importance to the Turkish financial system with a 4% market share of bank deposits. The high support assumptions incorporated into the long-term ratings now provide three notches of systemic (government) support uplift from the bank's standalone credit assessment.
The confirmation of the Ba2 foreign-currency deposit rating leaves that rating at the same level as Finansbank's local-currency deposit rating and Turkey's Ba2 foreign-currency deposit ceiling.
The negative outlook on these ratings reflects the negative outlook on the bank's standalone credit assessment.
--- LOWERING OF FINANSBANK'S STANDALONE CREDIT ASSESSMENT
The reduction in Finansbank's BFSR to E+/b2 (from D+/ba1) reflects Moody's assessment of the level of interconnectedness between Finansbank's overall risk profile and that of its parent NBG, and the risk that any further deterioration of NBG's creditworthiness could elevate the level of stress within the group and ultimately present contagion risks for Finansbank.
In reaching that judgment, Moody's has taken into account the independence of Finansbank from its parent, given (1) Finansbank's low dependence on funding from NBG, with financing limited to 3% of its balance sheet in the form of Tier 2 capital; (2) the low operational inter-linkages between Finansbank and NBG, given Finansbank's purely domestic focus; and (3) the regulatory environment in Turkey, which aims to ring-fence around the domestic subsidiary.
Moody's has also taken into account Finansbank's satisfactory performance over the recent years, despite credit pressures stemming from the sharp deterioration in NBG's performance and risk profile.
However, Moody's considers that the risk of contagion from parent to subsidiary can never be wholly mitigated. Finansbank's moderate reliance on market funds -- as demonstrated by a loan-to-deposit ratio of 114% as per H1 2012 BRSA results -- leaves its funding sensitive to market confidence which elevates its susceptibility to market volatility should the credit standing of its parent deteriorate further, with negative implications for the group, including Finansbank. Moody's has reflected this view by positioning Finansbank's standalone credit assessment four notches above the level of NBG's standalone strength.
The negative outlook on the BFSR reflects the negative outlook on the parent's ratings.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Given today's rating action and negative outlook on Finansbank's ratings, an upgrade is unlikely in the short-term. However, the ratings could benefit from (1) positive developments regarding the creditworthiness of Finansbank's current majority owner, NBG; and (2) further clarity on the future ownership structure of Finansbank.
The relevance of the latter stems from (1) NBG's stated intention to reduce its current stake; (2) our re-assessment of the potential impact of a more diverse ownership structure on Finansbank's intrinsic financial strength; and (3) the potential for de-linkage from any possible adverse consequences from NBG's weak creditworthiness.
A downgrade in Finansbank's ratings could be triggered by adverse credit developments in the parent's credit assessment, which could cause a deterioration of Finansbank's own intrinsic credit characteristics. Moody's continues to believe that there is a high probability of government support for Finansbank, in case of need. As a result, in an event of a multi-notch lowering of Finansbank's standalone assessment, Moody's would expect the downwards pressure on the long-term deposit and debt ratings to be more muted. A lower rating ceiling for foreign-currency deposits would exert downwards pressure on Finansbank's foreign-currency deposit rating.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
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Arif K Bekiroglu Asst Vice President - Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody'sDeutschland GmbH An der Welle 5 Frankfurt am Main 60322 Germany JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Carola Schuler MD - Banking Financial Institutions Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Deutschland GmbH An der Welle 5 Frankfurt am Main 60322 Germany JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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