Worldwide Telecoms Market Outlook 2019-2024 - Growth in Fixed Broadband & Mobile Handset Revenue Will Drive the Total Telecoms Service Revenue Growth

DUBLIN, Feb. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

The increase in telecoms service revenue worldwide will be driven by growth in mobile handset revenue, with a modest contribution from 5G services, and fixed broadband revenue from developing nations.

Operators are focusing on 5G and next-generation fixed broadband technologies because saturated markets will limit the growth from legacy sources of mobile and fixed revenue.

This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

The report and data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
• an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
• a summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Connections

Mobile

• Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
• Prepaid, contract
• 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
• Smartphone,
• non-smartphone

Fixed

• Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
• Narrowband voice, VoBB
• DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

• Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

• Service, retail
• Prepaid, contract
• Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
• Handset voice, messaging, data
  

Fixed

• Service, retail
• Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
• DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

• SIMs, handset
• Prepaid, contract
• Handset voice, data

The forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from topic-led research programmes and a consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to the robust set of historical data, the forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Key Topics Covered

Executive Summary

• Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in both the number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data revenue
• Retail revenue growth will be limited or negative in developed regions, but emerging markets' retail revenue will continue to grow at a healthy rate
• Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North America and developed Asia-Pacific will reach 100% by 2024
• Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.4% in CEE to 2.0% in SSA
• Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
• Key drivers at a glance for each region
• Market overview: growth in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue will drive the total telecoms service revenue growth
• Mobile: the 5G share of mobile connections will reach 22% worldwide by 2024
• Mobile: market competition will prevent mobile ARPU from rising during the forecast period, despite the boost due to new 5G connections
• Mobile: operators will have to find new sources of revenue growth due to saturated markets in developed regions and high levels of mobile competition
• Fixed: the FTTP/B share of fixed broadband connections will increase from 56% in 2019 to 64% in 2024
• Fixed: North America will be the only region with significant fixed broadband ASPU growth due to its limited market competition
• Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow in developing regions; operators in developed markets will focus on the consumer experience
• Specialist business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
• IoT: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion
• Pay-TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline

Individual Country Forecasts

• Western Europe: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile market
• Western Europe: blended mobile ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
• Western Europe: the total telecoms service revenue will grow only slightly because only the fixed broadband market offers potential for significant revenue growth
• Western Europe: forecast changes
• Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
• Central and Eastern Europe: mobile ARPU will increase, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in mobile data usage
• Central and Eastern Europe: total revenue growth will be driven by a rise in the number of mobile contract subscriptions and increasing fixed broadband coverage
• Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
• Emerging Asia-Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow as penetration increases
• Emerging Asia-Pacific: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple during 2019-2024
• Emerging Asia-Pacific: rising levels of competition and regulatory pressure will limit the growth in mobile ARPU and fixed broadband ASPU
• Emerging Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
• Developed Asia-Pacific: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset declines in legacy services
• Developed Asia-Pacific: the take-up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand-side conditions
• Developed Asia-Pacific: operators will focus on rolling out NGA networks and 5G services
• Developed Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
• Middle East and North Africa: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help to maintain service revenue growth
• Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the fast migration from 3G to 4G
• Middle East and North Africa: monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieving telecoms retail revenue growth
• Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
• Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile revenue will be the dominant contributor to the total telecoms revenue growth, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
• Sub-Saharan Africa: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
• Sub-Saharan Africa: SSA is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
• Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes
• Latin America: mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
• Latin America: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024
• Latin America: fixed broadband revenue will account for the majority of the total telecoms retail revenue, driven by expansions in-network coverage
• Latin America: forecast changes
• North America: a lack of competition will allow both mobile and fixed service revenue to continue to grow
• North America: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly, thanks to early market launch in the USA
• North America: fixed broadband will be the main driver of the total telecoms revenue growth, thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
• North America: forecast changes

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/gii78f

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