Edison Investment Research Limited: Braemar Shipping Services (BMS): Initiation - Ambition to double size in four years

London, UK, 24 May 2022

Braemar Shipping Services (BMS): Initiation - Ambition to double size in four years

Braemar recently completed a corporate transformation that will see it move away from being a widely spread shipping services company, to grow into a clearly focused shipbroking operation. Allied to the transformation is the companys growth strategy, supported by growing global trade, and shippings status as the most energy-efficient and lowest carbon method of freight transport, that has management focused on doubling the business inside four years. We value the shares at 400p, a c 40% premium to the current price, but see greater upside as evidence of success is delivered over the next two to three years.

Braemar is trading on a P/E of 10.1x in FY23e, a material discount to the only other quoted shipbroker, Clarkson, which trades on c 18x in FY22e. We believe such a large differential is unjustified as it gives no credit for the growth ambition and proven ability to execute, suggesting upside in Braemars rating. We value Braemar at 400p/share based on a dividend discount model with a 7.25% cost of capital and a growth rate of 5.5%. This valuation implies a P/E of c 17x, a c 5% discount to Clarkson, and a terminal growth rate of c -5% in our DCF model. Furthermore, we believe there is upside to earnings forecasts and the potential for a re-rating of the shares, which would suggest a higher valuation than 400p is possible if management can successfully deliver the growth strategy.

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